- Sunny with highs around 60 at lake level and 50's on the mountains Monday through Wednesday. - Gusty winds pick up on Wednesday afternoon ahead of a system moving through Wednesday night. Systems moving through the Pacific NW Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Saturday night should mainly stay to the north, but could bring light showers. High temperatures dropping into the 50's Thursday into the weekend. - We may see high pressure build in over the West Coast the week of the 21st. We could see a prolonged mild and dry period through the end of October, and possibly into November.
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Short Term Forecast
High pressure builds in over CA for the start of the week.
We should see sunny skies with highs near 60 at lake level and 50's on the mountains. By Wednesday we should see the winds increasing with gusts to 40 mph on the mountains by afternoon. This is ahead of the first of several storms that will move into the Pacific NW into the weekend as the next trough digs into the West.
The forecast models were suggesting that some of the systems could dig deeper into CA with more moisture a few days ago. The last few days they have trended much drier for CA, keeping most of the precipitation to the north in the Pacific NW. We may just see some clouds, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. Highs should drop into the 50's at lake level Thursday into the weekend, and 40's on the mountains with gusty winds possible each day.
We could see some light showers as each system moves through Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Saturday. We will have to see how far south the systems could push the precipitation. But for now amounts look light if any through the weekend on all of the forecast models.
Next week we may see a strong area of high pressure build over the West Coast. The forecast models are suggesting a stronger and more prolonged ridge than we have seen in a while, that could sit over the West Coast through the end of the month.
We could see a prolonged dry pattern through the end of the month and possibly longer. We could also see temperatures back to normal to above normal.
It was nice to see a few early season snowstorms in September. It looks like we may end up with a much quieter October, especially if we don't see any significant precipitation this weekend. We will keep an eye on it all week and I'll update by Thursday, or sooner if there are any changes.
P.S. I'll be working on the analog forecast for the winter over the next week. We will also continue to watch the sea surface temperatures and other patterns to try and get an idea for the upcoming winter pattern as we get closer to winter.
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